How much will Social Security benefits increase in 2026? Analysts expect a 2.7% cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, which corresponds to the headline rate of inflation reported Tuesday.
On Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the consumer price index, or CPI, increased by 2.7% in July. That inflation rate remained unchanged from June, and the reading was slightly lower than expected. However, the rate remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
Every month, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics updates headline CPI figures and other inflation metrics, analysts update their projections for the next Social Security COLA increase.
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People receiving Social Security benefits—a total of approximately 70 million people, including Americans 65 and older, spouses, and people with disabilities—will see an increase in their checks in January.
Monthly COLA forecasts from independent analysts give beneficiaries an idea of what to expect in the coming year. The Social Security Administration will announce the official COLA for 2026 in October.
Mary Johnson, a retired Social Security and Medicare policy analyst, predicts a 2.7% COLA increase, the same as last month.
Johnson explains that the COLA is calculated using the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers, also known as the CPI-W. In July, this index showed an increase in inflation of 2.5%, down from 2.6% the previous month.
The CPI-W reading for July, as well as the next two for August and September, will receive extra attention because the COLA is calculated using third-quarter data, Johnson adds.
“The CPI-W data for July, August, and September is averaged and compared to the third-quarter average from a year ago. Johnson writes that the Social Security Administration uses the percentage difference to determine the annual COLA adjustment.
The numbers in Johnson’s forecast correspond exactly to those in a release from The Senior Citizens League, or TSCL. The nonpartisan organization also forecasts a 2.7% COLA increase for 2026, up 0.2 percentage points from the beginning of the year.
“Inflation continues to rise as the COLA announcement approaches,” the TSCL said in a statement on Tuesday. “TSCL’s COLA model has consistently predicted an increase. Since May, the prediction has increased month after month, indicating the possibility of resurgent inflation.
While older Americans may be hoping for a higher COLA, that depends on inflation rising in the coming weeks.
While President Donald Trump’s tariffs have not yet caused an increase in inflation, many retirees are concerned about the strain that additional price increases would place on their budgets, according to TSCL representatives.
