Social Security beneficiaries are likely to receive larger monthly checks by 2026, but this may not be enough to offset inflation.
The Senior Citizens’ League, the leading senior advocacy group, predicts a 2.7% increase in the cost-of-living adjustment for next year when it is announced in October.
Every year, the Social Security Administration announces a new COLA to ensure that seniors’ benefits keep up with inflation; if inflation rises, the monthly benefit increases as well.
“With the COLA announcement just around the corner, seniors across America are holding their breath,” Senior Citizens’ League Executive Director Shannon Benton said in a statement. Although a higher COLA would boost monthly benefits, some may be disappointed. Many seniors believe the COLA does not accurately reflect the inflation they experience.”
The 2.7 percent increase predicted for 2026 is 0.2 percentage points higher than the COLA for 2025.
The 2025 COLA increased benefits by approximately $49 per month for the average Social Security retiree payment.
Each fall, the Senior Citizens’ League uses the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers’ average inflation rate for July, August, and September to forecast the COLA for the following year.
The Senior Citizens’ League’s forecast for this year has risen each month since May, “pointing to risks of resurgent inflation,” the organization stated.
The inflation rate has remained at or near 3 percent since the beginning of the year, but experts predict it will rise later this year as President Donald Trump’s tariffs raise consumer prices.
July’s inflation rate of 2.7 percent comes in the final month before Americans can expect to see price increases on everything from Irish whiskey to Japanese-made Toyotas to Brazilian coffee.
Trump had initially imposed tariffs on “Liberation Day” in April before abandoning the plan after the stock market plummeted and the Treasury bond market surged.
The most recent Consumer Price Index report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics appears to indicate that, despite Trump’s suspension of many of his reciprocal tariffs, Americans are still feeling the effects. Despite this, the White House claims that the tariffs have had no negative impact on Americans.
“The Panicans continue to be proven wrong by the data – President Trump’s tariffs are raking in billions of dollars, small business optimism is at a five-month high, and real wages are rising,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said. “The American people have rightfully put their trust in President Trump’s America First agenda that is Making America Wealthy Again.”
While Trump claims that people will not be affected, a Yale Budget Lab study released last week found that consumers face an overall average tariff rate of 18.6 percent, the highest since the Great Depression.
