According to an analysis by the Trump administration’s chief actuary for the program, President Trump’s massive tax and spending bill could hasten the insolvency of Social Security’s trust funds.
In response to a request from Sen. Ron Wyden (Ore.), the top Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee, the Social Security Administration’s Office of the Chief Actuary (OACT) issued an analysis of the law’s potential effects on the program’s finances this week.
The report estimated that implementing Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act would “result in net increased program cost” beginning this year, citing the major package’s recent tax changes.
“Because the revenue from income taxation of Social Security benefits is directed to the Social Security and Medicare trust funds, implementation of the OBBBA will have material effects on the financial status of the Social Security trust funds,” according to the report.
With the recent tax changes, the office projected that the depletion of the combined Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) and Disability Insurance (DI) trust funds would accelerate from “the third quarter of 2034” under the recent board of trustees’ report baseline to “the first quarter of 2034 following implementation of the law.”
A closer look at the OASI Trust Fund revealed that its reserve depletion date could accelerate “from the first quarter of 2033 to the fourth quarter of 2032,” whereas the DI Trust Fund reserves “are not projected to become depleted during the 75-year projection period” when both funds were considered separately.
However, when discussing the program’s solvency, both accounts are typically treated as a single fund, as lawmakers have previously permitted interfund borrowing between accounts to temporarily extend solvency.
The analysis projected that the total net increase in OASDI program costs through 2034 would be $168.6 billion, as the trust funds are expected to see lower levels of tax revenue from Social Security benefits beginning this year.
The Hill has contacted the White House for comment.
The actuary also predicted that the implementation of the law would “decrease (worsen) the 75-year OASDI actuarial balance by 0.16 percent of taxable payroll.”
The office states that the analysis is limited to the effects of the income tax changes and how they will affect “taxation of benefits revenue to the trust funds.”
It added that it will use the analysis results as an updated baseline when evaluating “effects of proposals that affect the OASI and DI Trust Funds, particularly proposals intended to extend solvency, starting now and until the issuance of the 2026 Trustees Report next year.”
“The 2026 Trustees Report will incorporate the latest data, assumptions, and methods available at the time of its development, in addition to possible refinements in our understanding of the effects of the OBBBA,” according to the investigation.
